Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,243$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(407 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,178.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,178.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(12.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $121$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,725$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,971.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,971.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,905$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(314 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,872.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,872.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $820$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $229,327$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.91 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223,372.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(223,372.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,735$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,660.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(31,660.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,752$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,622,612$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,628,751.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,628,751.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $97,087$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(8.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,338.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(97,338.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,164,286$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $258,504$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(265,347.7\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,757$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,733.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,733.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $220,598$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,188$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,757.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(35,757.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,992$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(357 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,009.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,009.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,225$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $179,986$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,850.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(171,850.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,261$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,113.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,113.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,009$ on 2020-05-23