Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,243$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(407 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,178.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,178.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(12.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-05-23

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,725$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,971.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,971.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,905$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(314 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,872.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,872.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $820$ on 2020-05-23

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $229,327$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.91 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223,372.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(223,372.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,735$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,660.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(31,660.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,752$ on 2020-05-23

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,622,612$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,628,751.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,628,751.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $97,087$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(8.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,338.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(97,338.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,164,286$ on 2020-05-23

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $258,504$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(265,347.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,757$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,733.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,733.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $220,598$ on 2020-05-23

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,188$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,757.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(35,757.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,992$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(357 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,009.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,009.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,225$ on 2020-05-23

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $179,986$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,850.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(171,850.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,261$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,113.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,113.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,009$ on 2020-05-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 98%
Switzerland recovered 94%
Austria recovered 91%
Korea, South recovered 91%
Croatia recovered 90%
Australia recovered 90%
Tunisia recovered 89%
Andorra recovered 88%
Germany recovered 84%
Slovakia recovered 81%
Japan recovered 79%
Niger recovered 79%
Cuba recovered 79%
Denmark recovered 77%
Israel recovered 76%
Uruguay recovered 61%
Lithuania recovered 60%
Turkey recovered 58%
Czechia recovered 53%
Italy recovered 47%
Georgia recovered 44%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 42%
Serbia recovered 34%
Romania recovered 29%
San Marino recovered 25%
Morocco recovered 23%
Jamaica recovered 20%
Singapore recovered 17%
United Arab Emirates recovered 5%
Bulgaria recovered 3%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,468$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(468 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,454.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,454.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(19.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-23

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,486$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,610.7}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(15,610.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $639$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{628.6}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(628.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $810$ on 2020-05-23

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,190$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(5.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,586.8}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10,586.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $266$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(71.2 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(262.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $711$ on 2020-05-23

Australia⮸

Population $25,499,884$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,114$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,826.0}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,826.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(18.1 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(100.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $504$ on 2020-05-23